F-Score Review on The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) Shares as Value Hits 4

The Piotroski F-Score of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 4.  The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength.  The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not.  A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock.  The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings.  It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue.  The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.As most investors realize, markets will trade in cycles. This being the case, most investors will likely experience extremes of both bull and bear markets during their investing tenure. A big factor in scooping up profits during bull or bear markets is having the ability to identify when markets are beginning to peak or bottom out. This is obviously no easy task even for the most experienced investor. Certain types of stock investment strategies may do better during different market conditions. Professional traders may use highly complex systems in order to spot market opportunities. Novice investors who are just starting out may use simple strategies at first. Choosing a stock picking strategy that is tailored to fit the individual investor’s goals and financial situation may be a good way to create a solid base from which to start from. With the proper amount of research and discipline, the novice investor can begin to make the transition into becoming a skilled investor.

SMA 50/200

Ever wonder how investors predict positive share price momentum? The Cross SMA 50/200, also known as the “Golden Cross” is the fifty day moving average divided by the two hundred day moving average. The SMA 50/200 for The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is currently 0.66405. If the Golden Cross is greater than 1, then the 50 day moving average is above the 200 day moving average – indicating a positive share price momentum. If the Golden Cross is less than 1, then the 50 day moving average is below the 200 day moving average, indicating that the price might drop.

The price to book ratio or market to book ratio for The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) currently stands at -0.717435.  The ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price per share by the book value per share.  This ratio is used to determine how the market values the equity.  A ratio of under 1 typically indicates that the shares are undervalued.  A ratio over 1 indicates that the market is willing to pay more for the shares.  There are often many underlying factors that come into play with the Price to Book ratio so all additional metrics should be considered as well. 

MF Rank

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price. The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital. The MF Rank of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 1411. A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in. The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

The Q.i. Value of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 15.00000.  The Q.i. Value is a helpful tool in determining if a company is undervalued or not.  The Q.i. Value is calculated using the following ratios: EBITDA Yield, Earnings Yield, FCF Yield, and Liquidity.  The lower the Q.i. value, the more undervalued the company is thought to be.

The C-Score is a system developed by James Montier that helps determine whether a company is involved in falsifying their financial statements.  The C-Score is calculated by a variety of items, including a growing difference in net income verse cash flow, increasing days outstanding, growing days sales of inventory, increasing assets to sales, declines in depreciation, and high total asset growth.  The C-Score of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 3.00000.  The score ranges on a scale of -1 to 6.  If the score is -1, then there is not enough information to determine the C-Score.  If the number is at zero (0) then there is no evidence of fraudulent book cooking, whereas a number of 6 indicates a high likelihood of fraudulent activity. The C-Score assists investors in assessing the likelihood of a company cheating in the books.

Investors are constantly searching for quality stocks to help provide a boost to the portfolio. Quality can come in various forms such as a company that is a sales leader in a market that is growing or a company that is a technological leader with a proven record of success. Finding quality stocks at a bargain price is typically on the agenda for most investors. Because the economy and the stock market do not always go hand in hand, it may be important to analyze individual stocks. Some investors may choose to buy when the market is going up and sell when the market is going down. Other investors will opt to do the exact opposite. Whether the investor is going with the trend or against it, it can be important to make sure that the right types of stocks are in the portfolio. Nobody can exactly predict the future, but staying on top of portfolio holdings may help when the necessary decisions need to be made.

Turning to Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth), this is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow.  The FCF Growth of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is -0.270356.  Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure.  This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends.  The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow.  

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 47.186600.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  

The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 60.465900.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 55.651300.

Value Composite
The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 17.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 10.

ERP5 Rank

The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies. The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC. The ERP5 of The Michaels Companies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MIK) is 4966. The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

As we move deeper into the year, investors will be paying attention to which companies are well-positioned for future growth. Even if the current earnings reports are a mixed bag, investors can study which industries look they are taking the top spot. Many active investors may be focusing on which way estimates are trending heading into the company earnings release. Analysts will often make updates to projections shortly before and after the earnings numbers are provided. Many active investors may enjoy the volatility that comes with trading around earnings, but others will choose to let the heavy action pass before deciding which stocks to buy or sell next.

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